NEWS -PAD

According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, the single most likely outcome of the Democratic presidential primary is that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates (there is a 2 in 5, or 41 percent, chance of this). However, it is almost equally likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders will bag a majority (a 2 in 5 chance, or 37 percent). And a recent avalanche of national polls has been particularly good for Sanders.¹

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg will take the stage for the first time.

Gold and Palladium, the world’s two most valuable metals, are both charting peaks for 2020. In palladium’s case, it’s a resumption of the record highs seen a month back. Analysts are divided on what to make of the rallies and how much steam they’ll have.

It’s not often that a third-place finish grabs more headlines than first place, but there’s nothing the media loves more than an underdog, and they got one in spades with Sen. Amy Klobuchar on Tuesday night.

Welp, this is never fun. We discovered an issue with how our primary model was making state-by-state and district-by-district forecasts. Specifically, the model was not properly calculating the demographic regressions that we use as a complement to the polls.

Many observers of the 2020 Democratic primary expect that the race will be much different as it moves to states with more diverse electorates. In particular, the expectation is that former Vice President Joe Biden will do better and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg will do worse. After all, polls have consistently shown Biden leading among black voters and in the top two¹ with Hispanic Democrats, and Buttigieg way behind with both groups.

Democratic Debate: Live Updates Do You Buy That | 2:29 Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility? By Nate Silver Subscribe on YouTube All videos

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

By Yasin Ebrahim