Category: POLITICS
Election Update: We Got A Flurry Of New National Polls. Sanders Led Them All.
According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, the single most likely outcome of the Democratic presidential primary is that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates (there is a 2 in 5, or 41 percent, chance of this). However, it is almost equally likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders will bag a majority (a 2 in 5 chance, or 37 percent). And a recent avalanche of national polls has been particularly good for Sanders.1
Read MoreLive Blog / Las Vegas Democratic debate live updates: Six candidates face off in Nevada
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg will take the stage for the first time.
Read MoreWhat’s Behind Amy Klobuchar’s Surge — And Can It Go National?
It’s not often that a third-place finish grabs more headlines than first place, but there’s nothing the media loves more than an underdog, and they got one in spades with Sen. Amy Klobuchar on Tuesday night.
Read MoreWe Fixed An Issue With How Our Primary Forecast Was Calculating Candidates’ Demographic Strengths
Welp, this is never fun. We discovered an issue with how our primary model was making state-by-state and district-by-district forecasts. Specifically, the model was not properly calculating the demographic regressions that we use as a complement to the polls.
Read MoreHow Will The Democratic Primary Change Now That It’s Moving To More Diverse States?
Many observers of the 2020 Democratic primary expect that the race will be much different as it moves to states with more diverse electorates. In particular, the expectation is that former Vice President Joe Biden will do better and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg will do worse. After all, polls have consistently shown Biden leading among black voters and in the top two1 with Hispanic Democrats, and Buttigieg way behind with both groups.
Read MoreDo You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility?
Democratic Debate: Live Updates Do You Buy That | 2:29 Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility? By Nate Silver Subscribe on YouTube All videos
Read MoreWill The Nevada Debate Be All About Bloomberg?
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
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